What are some obscure but lucrative industries

The extent of this trust can be seen by comparing two simple facts: The American leading index Dow Jones reached its highest level of all time on January 14, 2000: 11,750 points. Today, Wall Street's stock market barometer is less than two percent away from that record high. In Germany, the Dax reached its all-time high on March 7, 2000 (8136 points) - today, the Dax is about 27 percent behind its previous dream result. America hui, Germany ugh - that's how the stock market judges it. And for Europe as a whole, the comparison doesn't look any more charming. Not only a look at the entire index, but also an analysis of the individual stocks reveals the gap between Wall Street and Frankfurt. Stock marketers assess the shares in the Dax with noticeably less confidence than the US papers. The BCG consultants determined a valuation discount on the respective fundamental value of the company for at least 13 stocks from the German stock market league. The Dax has many moderately valued stocks in its ranks, not just according to the analyzes of the Boston consultants. Even very classic key figures such as the price-earnings ratio (P / E) speak in favor of the German values. The bank analysts estimate the P / E ratio in the Dax for 2007 to be between 10 and 12, which is considered to be very acceptable in a long-term comparison. Overall, "the market value of industrial shares in the Dax currently covers their company value by 104 percent," reports consultant Frank Plaschke, co-author of the study. In purely arithmetical terms, German stocks are therefore more likely to be undervalued than overvalued. This has not always been the case: at the end of 2000, the BCG experts determined that the fundamental value only covered 82 percent of the overall rating at the time. Indeed, the Dax's rapid decline continued until spring 2003. The fact that Dax shares are now being traded a touch below value cannot be explained solely by the poor location conditions in international comparison and the weaker economic outlook in Germany. After all, the DAX companies in particular have been generating a large part of their sales and profits in foreign business for years. They are the globalization champions of the export world champion. And yet it is noticeable that while almost all stocks that performed particularly well on an international scale are now traded on the stock exchange above their fundamental value, many German stocks still have plenty of room for higher prices. Some double digits: BMW are quoting 11 percent below their theoretical value, Lufthansa 20, RWE 17, ThyssenKrupp 22, Volkswagen 17 - and the problem child of the shareholders, Deutsche Telekom, even 28 percent below the theoretical value. This is a reminder that "just looking at the haircut is not enough for an investor to select stocks," as advisor Stelter emphasizes. Because the calculation with the discount on the fundamental value only works if the company does not give up and in the future delivers worse values ​​than the industry average. This fear should not be absurd, especially with the T-Share. A 28 percent discount speaks a clear language: The investors do not trust CEO Kai-Uwe Ricke to get the Bonn-based group's sales and margin problems under control anytime soon. For the time being, the T-shareholders can only hope for a surprise victory. In any case, it is astounding that investors hold their T-regrets so adamantly about telecommunications and technology stocks. Plaschke: "We examined 14 industries. On average over the past five years, the technology sector delivered the second highest losses to investors." Investors only performed worse with stocks from the media and entertainment industry (six percent annual loss). The highest returns were achieved on average by raw materials (19 percent) and logistics stocks (12 percent). With automobiles, construction and chemicals, nine percent were possible, with energy suppliers eight. One might think that the shareholders' love for technology can be explained by their risk appetite. Tenor: "It may be that other industries brought higher average profits, but the highest peak profits were achieved with technology." But even that is not true. It is true that the biggest destroyer of value in the BCG study came from the technology industry with a 41 percent loss per year - but the top technology stock Apple was overtaken by the number 1 representatives from seven other industries. The risk-reward profile of technology stocks is therefore anything but optimal for investors.

Does this settle the old controversial question of whether investors should pay attention to growth or substance strength when choosing their stocks (value or growth, as it is called on Wall Street)? When the BCG consultants broken down the sources of income for shareholders into their component parts, they found that 60 percent came from the company's sales growth. The size of the margin, the dividend, or the reduction in debt all add up to less of an impact. But, and that is a central but: “With these growth stocks, the price usually already takes high expectations into account, which are difficult to beat. It is better to invest in stocks whose valuation does not yet contain so many advance praise, ”says management consultant Stelter. Even moderately valued and substantial papers are likely to fall under the wheels as soon as the global economy cools down significantly. "I see no risk of a recession in the USA in 2007, but I see a significant slowdown in growth," says Torsten Slok, economic expert at Deutsche Bank. The situation would only become more critical if the problems on the property market were greater than currently assumed. There is currently a mood on the stock exchanges that is difficult for outsiders to understand, in which poor economic data are celebrated by the markets with price gains. The strange logic behind it: If economic growth no longer works out so well, the American central bank will not dare to raise interest rates any further. And since high interest rates damage the stock market, that is more important than the negative effect of a weak economy on corporate profits and thus on the substantial backing of share prices. Especially since the fall in the price of oil is currently helping Wall Street and thus also the other major stock exchanges. First, because the energy costs then do not weigh so heavily on corporate profits. Second, because this also makes it easier for the US Federal Reserve to decide not to raise key interest rates any further. "Our medium-term skepticism remains unaffected by this," warn the securities strategists at DZ Bank, since the American stock exchange will probably be overtaken by the economic slowdown next year. The BCG analysis also reveals a threat to Wall Street. In addition to the current data, the consultants also calculated the fundamental values ​​of the companies back to 1926 and compared them with the stock market valuations. In doing so, they found: "The valuation of the company keeps approaching the fundamental value," said Plaschke. However, this approach can take a long time. In the longest phase, the stock market remained arithmetically exaggerated for 16 years: from 1958 to 1973, before the first oil crisis spoiled the party mood. For 16 years, starting in 1991, the current phase has continued, in which the stock exchange traders believe that companies will grow more rapidly each year, i.e. the overall valuation is above the arithmetical fundamental value. The US analysts have already lowered their profit forecasts for the next four quarters noticeably. Instead of 16.3 percent profit growth as in the second quarter of 2006, they calculate for the spring quarter 2007 only 8.2 percent growth. This makes the air on Wall Street thinner. You can read the complete article with detailed tables and graphics on the winners and their industries as well as an interview with management consultant Daniel Stelter in the current issue 38/2006 of WirtschaftsWoche. Now new at the kiosk!